Supported findingNOVELTY UNRESOLVEDChecked 2026-05-30
Does the matched weather/Kp result replicate on direct station data and held-out dates?
Result: In the full-date Hessdalen event corpus, dated observations behave as an observation-ecology result rather than a physical explanation: event days are not elevated on same-day Kp against matched +/-7/14/21/28 day controls, while precipitation and wind-gust metrics are lower than controls. This claim does not explain what the Hessdalen lights are, does not claim weather causes the phenomenon, and does not refute geomagnetic hypotheses generally; it only says same-day Kp is not elevated in this bridge. Weather evidence is Open-Meteo reanalysis-grid data, not direct station instrument logs for every event.
Claim ceiling: Bounded corpus/measurement result; no mechanism or universality.
Novelty: Aletheia applies matched +/-7/14/21/28-day controls to dated reports and separates same-day Kp non-elevation from lower reanalysis precipitation/gust observation ecology.
Receipts and linked question
Question: Q-HESSDALEN-ECOLOGY
Evidence grade: G2_SUPPORTED_EQUIVALENT
Evidence records: ART-057, ART-056
Supported findingNOVELTY UNRESOLVEDChecked 2026-06-10
Does the LZc effect remain absent after preregistered aperiodic control in new raw EEG?
Result: In two raw psychedelic-EEG datasets (ketamine and DMT), apparent increases in signal-diversity complexity (Lempel-Ziv) are largely explained by flattening of the 1/f aperiodic slope; after controlling for the aperiodic exponent, no separable complexity effect remains in these datasets.
Claim ceiling: Bounded corpus/measurement result; no mechanism or universality.
Novelty: Aletheia tests the specific 1/f aperiodic exponent as the confound in both ketamine and DMT raw datasets and reports no separable drug effect after that control.
Receipts and linked question
Question: Q-LZC-APERIODIC
Evidence grade: G2_SUPPORTED_EQUIVALENT
Evidence records: ART-044, ART-034
Supported findingPARTLY KNOWNChecked 2026-07-23
Does dream-report linkage generalize to independent open-set contributors?
Result: Closed-set pseudonymous linkage within DreamBank after obvious content clues were removed.
Claim ceiling: Closed-set pseudonymous archive linkage, not real-name identification.
Novelty: Aletheia directly measures closed-set pseudonymous linkage across 20 contributors after removing obvious names and content clues, with an explicit privacy framing.
Receipts and linked question
Question: Q-DREAM-PRIVACY-LINKAGE
Evidence grade: G2_SUPPORTED_WITHIN_ONE_ARCHIVE
Evidence records: ART-032, ART-033
Supported findingNOVELTY UNRESOLVEDChecked 2026-07-24
Does the coarse telling-order gradient replicate in the independently collected NDERF corpus?
Result: Validated markers in 2,192 OBERF narratives follow a coarse order in the telling: onset/body markers early, tunnel and light mid-narrative, felt presence after them, return-to-body last; p=1e-4 in both corpus halves under an event-set-preserving null. Early-cluster internal order is not stable, so the supported claim is a coarse gradient, not a step-by-step sequence.
Claim ceiling: Telling order of validated markers in one corpus; not an experienced-event sequence; early-cluster order unstable.
Novelty: Preregistered, precision-gated marker measurement with permutation nulls and split replication on an OBE corpus; telling-order claim ceiling
Receipts and linked question
Question: Q-OBERF-TELLING-ORDER
Evidence grade: G2_SUPPORTED_WITHIN_ONE_CORPUS
Evidence records: ART-036, ART-037
Supported findingPARTLY KNOWNChecked 2026-07-24
Does the database-level structure (robust pooled excess, no decline, weak small-study signal) hold in the independent Tressoldi compilation?
Result: In the public 128-study ganzfeld compilation: pooled excess +376.2 hits over the ~5,459-trial chance expectation (p<1e-5), robust to greedy removal of 46 of 128 studies; decline over time absent at the frozen 0.01 threshold; small-study association suggestive only (p=0.019-0.047). Structure of the compiled file; upstream selection untested; no psi conclusion either way.
Claim ceiling: Structure of one proponent-compiled database; upstream publication/selection effects untested; no psi conclusion.
Novelty: Frozen pre-registered thresholds, greedy fragility count, duplicate sensitivity, and independent exact-tail reproduction on the 2018 compilation
Receipts and linked question
Question: Q-GANZFELD-DB-STRUCTURE
Evidence grade: G2_SUPPORTED_WITHIN_ONE_DATABASE
Evidence records: ART-035, ART-038